Pathways to a Post-2030 Development Agenda
Executive Summary
Discussions on a post-2030 development agenda are emerging. Member States and stakeholders should not rush into settling on any one clear vision for what this will look like. They should also not wait for the formal process to spoon-feed them a ready-made solution. The upcoming months provide a moment for open reflection among stakeholders to explore all options and scenarios and take action to prepare the ground for a process that would meet the moment. This paper sketches out the political landscape, key drivers and possible scenarios for how this process might play out.
Objective: In preparation of the formal process to develop a post-2030 agenda, starting with the SDG Summit in September 2027, the upcoming months provide a moment for open reflection to explore all scenarios and prepare the ground for a productive process.
A political landscape in flux: The debate will have to respond to the frustrations and shortcomings of the current framework, while providing a vision and renewed commitment for sustainable development objectives that have become mainstreamed, however imperfectly, in development policies and processes around the globe. That path is unclear, and there is a noticeable reticence among governments in articulating their respective visions. A new Secretary-General will have to structure the process and timeline. And the role of the U.S. remains unpredictable.
A process taking shape: Several key political interests and lessons learned from implementing the 2030 Agenda will influence the process and balancing broad consultation with the need for a more sharply focussed agenda will be a key tension. Despite a general reticence to take position at this stage, some Member States have circulated concepts and ideas which — directly or indirectly — sketch out approaches for the period beyond 2030. Civil society has initiated a series of reflections, issued first proposals, and started organizing on the margins of the HLPF 2026.
Recommendations for immediate action: To shape the formal process set to begin in 2027, governments and stakeholders committed to a strong multilateral framework should: 1) Think creatively through all possible scenarios for a post-2030 development agenda before the new SG sets direction and a formal process is launched; 2) Amplify support among stakeholders who are committed to an updated global development agenda and 3) strategize on how to tackle the inevitable roadblocks and shore up renewed political momentum and energy to carry forward implementation.
Scenarios: As a rough starting point, it is easy to imagine several possible alternatives for outcomes from the post-2030 discussions:
A) Status quo: no agreement is sought or reached, but the SDGs continue to exist (in absence of a new framework) and to serve as a general reference.
B) Technical revision: the SDGs are maintained but updated timelines and technical adjustments are made to the goals and targets.
C) Limited expansion: new goals or targets are added on critical new issues, such as AI/digital, while the current agenda is largely maintained.
D) New Commitment to Implement: the agenda is effectively rolled over, but with a new, overarching declaration that reaffirms the determination of Member States to pursue its implementation and specific commitments in areas that will catalyze and accelerate progress.
E) New and More Focused: the existing, expansive agenda is replaced with a narrower set of achievable and catalytic goals, trying to find the sweet spot somewhere between the SDGs and the earlier MDGs.
F) New blueprint: a comprehensive new agenda is articulated through a consultative process with no pre-determination on the scope of goals and targets.
G) Decentralized follow-up: a rotating convening of the HLPF in other HQs anchors the universal agenda in a global process and could both promote localization of the agenda and reinvigorate it.
H) Hybrid: Some combination of one or more of the above.
Photo Credit: UN Photo/Cia Pak